[KR: Sensenbrenner seems to have had a very similar effect to Prop. 187 in CA -- even though reports of registration before the election did not point to a strong increase, high turnout and a strong anti-GOP slant ruled the day. Looks like Bowler, Nicholson, and Segura's claim that such measures turn off moderate voters also seems to have occurred (although Iraq may have played a larger role).]

2006 Elections: Polls show Latinos help turn tide
Strategists claim Republicans overplayed immigration issue
By Barbara Ferry | The New Mexican
November 10, 2006

“Send a Minuteman to Congress” was a campaign slogan for Randy Graf, a Republican who ran for an open House seat in southern Arizona’s “Ground Zero” — the area of the United States most heavily impacted by illegal immigration.

It didn’t work.

Democrat pollsters and immigrant advocates pointed to Graf’s defeat, along with the unseating of two other immigration hard-liners in the House — J.D Hayworth of Arizona and John Hostettler of Indiana — as evidence that stumping against immigration didn’t go over well with voters in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

“This is the dog that didn’t bark,” said Frank Sharry, director of the National Immigration Forum, a group that favors a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Concerns over illegal immigration might have failed to drive conservative voters to the polls, but the issue had an unintended consequence for Republicans: It mobilized Latinos to turn out to vote for Democrats, analysts said.

“The overwhelming conclusion is that immigration did not work as a wedge issue,” said Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners, a Democratic polling firm. “The strategy of taking extreme positions backfired on a number of candidates.”

Democratic strategists also claimed Republicans overplayed the immigration issue, assuming it was a top concern among voters. That was not borne out by exit polls, which showed only 30 percent of voters said immigration was “extremely important,” according to Lake.

However Rick Oltman, the Western field director for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which advocates tougher controls on immigration, disputed that conclusion, pointing out that Arizonans voted 3-to-1 to make English the state’s official language. Oltman called the language initiative a “metaphor for the whole illegal immigration question.”

“There wasn’t a single candidate who ran on a `Give them amnesty’ platform who won,” Oltman added.

Several candidates with opposing legal status for illegal immigrants prevailed, notably incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona.

In Indiana, Hostettler’s replacement, former Sheriff Brad Ellsworth, has said had he been in Congress last year, he would have voted in favor of a House bill making illegal presence in the United States a felony.
And Tom Tancredo, the Colorado firebrand who founded the Congressional Immigration Reform caucus and once railed against public libraries in Denver for supplying Spanish speakers with materials in that language, was handily re-elected.

Some interpreted Tuesday’s vote as a rejection of President Bush and all he stands for, including a guest-worker program.

Bush “completely undermined Republican candidates struggling to place the safety and security of American families first,” the Minutemen Civilian Defense Corps said in a news release.

Latino shift to Democrats

In 2004, Bush captured an estimated 44 percent of the Latino vote, a record high. Early exit polls results from Tuesday’s races show the GOP getting 25 and 30 percent of the Latino vote.

Simon Rosenberg, president of the New Democrat Network, predicted final numbers will show “the highest Latino turnout in American history.” He said concerns over how Republicans were handling immigration motivated Latino voters to show up. Latino voters made up 8 percent of the electorate Tuesday, Rosenberg said.

Pollsters also questioned voters on immigration policy. According to a national poll, 57 percent of voters who were asked their position on immigration said they wanted to offer legal status to immigrants while 38 percent said most illegal immigrants should be deported. In New Mexico, support for legal status for immigrants was slightly higher at 60 percent, according to an exit poll by The Associated Press.

New environment

With the change in leadership, immigrant advocates are hopeful that chances for comprehensive reform are good. Bush, who supports a guest-worker program, cited the issue as an area where he expects to be able to work with a Democratically controlled Congress.

Oltman said the new environment will bring a challenge to defeat a bill that grants legal status to undocumented residents.

“We know the elites want to bring in more cheap labor for business. They will get out their spinmeisters, but this is clearly not what Americans want,” he said.

But Marcela Diaz, director of Somos Un Pueblo Unido in Santa Fe, said her constituents — immigrants in New Mexico — are optimistic because of the election results. “This is a huge opening for something sweeping and comprehensive,” Diaz said.

She pointed out that Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., a supporter of legalization, is expected to be appointed head of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Either Rep. John Conyers of Michigan or Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas, both Democrats, would replace Republican Rep. James Sensenbrenner as Judiciary Committee leader in the House. Those panels would be the first to consider changes to immigration law.